Despite dismantling Andrew Luck’s Indianapolis Colts in the opener and Miami on the road in most convincing fashion two weeks later, the Buffalo Bills find themselves armed with cause for concern.  Key injuries, undisciplined penalties and to be frank, a measure of underachieving from what’s perceived as the team’s biggest strength has the Bills at 2-2 through a quarter of the regular season, and a matchup at Tennessee Sunday that suddenly appears more daunting than it did about a month ago.

The Titans (2-1) already have the benefit of taking the field Sunday off a bye week.  More importantly, they’ve benefited by a strong start from rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota. It’s still early, but Mariota has completed an impressive 62.9% of his passes for 833 yards while tossing eight touchdowns against just two interceptions through three games.

His two primary targets in the passing game could pose problems for the Bills. Kendall Wright has 13 receptions and is averaging 8.2 yards after contact per catch, while Delanie Walker (10 receptions) is one of the more talented tight ends in the league.

Bills defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman has respect for the Tennessee offense.

“They have a good offense,” Thurman said this week.  “They wanna run the football. They’re keeping things fairly simple for him right now but he’s a talented young man that obviously can play and hurt you if you let him.”

Of course, the Bills could do themselves a huge solid by starting to get after the quarterback more effectively. Just one year ago Buffalo had a league-best 54 sacks, with 34.5 of them coming from Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes.  This year the Bills have just seven sacks in four games, and only four via the aforementioned trio.  That’s simply not good enough—not with the salary these guys are earning.

As a team, no Bills defender has more than one sack.  Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News has an excellent article that discusses the Bills defensive line’s discontent with Rex Ryan’s scheme early on.

Tennessee doesn’t have the explosiveness at running back as the Bills, but they’re averaging the exact same yards per carry (4.2) as Buffalo and just two less total rushing yards per contest.   Bishop Sankey (126 yards) and Dexter McCluster (113) are pacing the Tennessee ground game.

Buffalo has been decimated by injury in the backfield, with both Lesean McCoy (hamstring) and Karlos Williams (concussion) both ruled out Sunday.  That means Boobie Dixon will need to spearhead the ground game, while Cierre Wood and newly acquired Boom Herron could get opportunities.

That could put the Bills fate largely on the shoulders of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The fifth-year vet but first year starter has struggled at times but played well overall, completing 86-of-120 passes for 988 yards and 8 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. He also has 111 yards on the ground and his 104 passer rating is good for seventh in the AFC.

Taylor has spent a lot of time this week studying the Titans defense, and he’s come away impressed.

“They’re talented across the board,” Taylor said. “Very talented up front and in the secondary as well. Just have to go out there, be sharp, play smart. Of course it’s another challenge for us going out there on the road. So we have to be on the same page as far as communication and going out there and getting the job done.”

As of early Friday Sammy Watkins (calf) was still listed as questionable.  With him out last Sunday the Bills relied heavy on tight end Charles Clay and he responded with 9 catches against the New York Giants.  Clay leads the team with 21 catches for 255 yards, while Percy Harvin has mostly fit in nice—catching 19 balls for 218 yards.

Here’s Under The Radar Buffalo Keys To the Game:

Big Plays: The Bills haven’t been perfect on offense this season, but they have shown an ability to strike from anywhere on the field.  The Bills currently lead the NFL in points on the board coming from outside the red zone with 67. The next best team (Giants) only have 44.  That’s largely because Buffalo is tied with Arizona for the league lead in plays over 20 yards (22).

Pinning Them Deep: Part of the success against any quarterback, especially a rookie comes by making him go farther down the field.  Bills punter Colton Schmidt is sixth in the NFL with a 43.0 net average and averaged a career-high 51.9 yards per punt against the Giants last week.

Robert Woods Steps Up: Watkins at best is iffy to play and you can expect the Titans to key heavily on Clay and Harvin. That could lead to a lot of opportunities for Woods.  Unfortunately for him he hasn’t really rose to the challenge.   He has just 12 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown in four games, and continues to look the part of someone who’s little more than a fringe number three receiver. In his third year with the team, it’s time for the second-round draft pick to start consistently making more plays.  Woods has never had consecutive games with at least five catches in his career.

Return of Aaron Williams: The Bills safety has missed the past two games with a neck injury and whether you like Williams or not, the team has felt it.  A review of game tape with Williams out has shown that Bacarri Rambo, despite his cool name and likeability has been a major liability in pass coverage, and Duke Williams is no better. The Bills are expecting Williams back in Tennessee, and could really use him.  Ryan went as far as to call Williams one of the best safeties in the league when healthy.  I vehemently disagree, but he's certainly an upgrade over Rambo and Duke.

 

PREDICTION TIME:  A Bills win isn’t feeling as much the foregone conclusion I thought this was a few weeks ago, but I still think they find a way to get the job done. After not putting up numbers through the first month I see Sunday as the day the defensive line finally racks up some sacks against a talented-but-still rookie quarterback. The Bills will struggle on offense without McCoy and Williams, but Greg Roman will dial up enough plays to get at least 20 points on the board, which I think will be enough.  Bills 24, Titans 16.

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